Coastal Doings September 2015

Humpback Whale Surfaces at Surfer's Beach 

The warm Pacific Ocean around San Francisco/Half Moon Bay has attracted a variety of activities for the last few weeks including an invasion of Humpback Whales. This was evident today at Surfer's Beach at highway 1 where many Humpbacks were feeding to the delight of the unusually large crowds of people who gathered to enjoy the spectacle. Also in attendance where Heermann's Gulls, Western Gulls, Brown Pelicans, Elegant Terns, Common Murre's and California Sea lions.

The waters around Half Moon Bay have been 60 F or higher since early July, a phenomenon that has not likely occurred in the resent past. This higher temperature correlates with past El Niño years.

There is a major Common Murre die-off that FMSA (Farallones Marine Sanctuary Association) sponsor of Beach Watch of which I'm a volunteer has been investigating. On my last survey of Gazos Creek Beach 9/9/15 we documented approximately 75 dead murres. This die-off is 4X the normal year and is consistent with past El Niño years.

About 7-9 Brown Boobies have been observed on the Farallones and some have been spotted at Alcatraz and even one Boobie has been hanging out on the buoy off Miramar in the Half Moon Bay area. At least two Blue-footed Boobies have been observed on the Farallones and some have been seen from Santa Cruz to Point Reyes! Also of note but not a southern species is the Northern Gannet that has been hanging out on the Farallones for several years.

Some other activity of note are at least two incidents of Vellela Vellela (by-the-wind sailor) strandings in very large numbers. There has been an unusual number of Mola Mola (sunfish) juveniles washing up on beaches, plus the troubling rise in California Sea Lion mortality and Guadalupe Fur Seal strandings.

Heermann's Gulls enjoying
Whale Breath

Speaking of rare, today it actually sprinkled here, finally an opportunity for the weather gurus to use their much touted and little utilized "Storm Tracker" radar!    

El Niño and Buoy 46012 Half Moon Bay

Buoy 46012 HMB

Right now in the Pacific specifically the waters from Monterey to Point Reyes and out to the Farallones have temperatures historically high and persistent with temperatures around or above 60° F. The Half Moon Bay buoy 46012 has recorded as high as 65°F water temperatures numerous times. From the past records of buoy 46012 (1980-present) the highest temperature I have found is 67°F. So not only are we flirting with record high temperatures they have been in record territory consistently since early July! There is a lot of talk about the possible historic El Niño  event brewing in the Pacific plus the Pacific Blob that has parked itself right in our local coastal waters. In addition the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (RRR)   has been batting storms away from the Bay Area and most of California now for about 4 years!

The purpose of this exercise is to monitor buoy data as we approach the winter season and compare data from previous years, especially El Niño  and in particular 1997-98 our last El Niño  year. Unfortunately buoy 46012 (HMB) did not record water temperatures for the entire 1997 year probably because of a technical glitch. However buoy 46026 (SF) had useful water temperatures for this period. 

Some Technical Data on Buoy 46012

Owned and maintained by National Data   Buoy Center

3-meter discus buoy

ARES payload

37.363 N 122.881 W (37°21'45" N 122°52'52" W)

Site elevation: sea level

Air temp height: 4 m above site elevation

Anemometer height: 5 m above site elevation

Barometer elevation: sea level

Sea temp depth: 0.6 m below site elevation

Water depth: 208.8 m

Watch circle radius: 170 yards


NOAA has been collecting Historical Data from this buoy since 1980. Some parameters of interest are sea and air temperatures wind velocity and direction, wave heights and periods dew points and pressure readings. I will be exploring data from this buoy as well as Buoy 46013 Bodega Bay located 48 NM NW of San Francisco, buoy 46026 San Francisco located 18NM West of San Francisco, buoy 46237 San Francisco Bar located about 7 miles West of San Francisco and Weather Station FTPC1 located at Crissy Field Presidio! In the future I may also include data from the Point Reyes, Monterey and Point Arena stations.     

I'm going to focus initially here from July 1st 2015 thru the present date which as I write is September 7th 2015. I'm using this period because a historical spike in the ocean temperature appeared about July 7th 2015 and was 18.0 C (64.4 F) after a long period of temperatures well under 60 F.  The water temperature spike of July 7th is significant to me because it's the first time I could feel a change in my local climate and relate it to the ocean temperature. This seems obvious if after thought but was a surprise to me and at the same time gives me a metric to relate my climate to the local ocean behavior. Having lived on or near the California Coast for near 50 years, I was convinced the coastal cool Mediterranean climate was rock solid in its persistence and seemed impervious to change!

Looking at the historical records of buoy 46012 from  11/1980 thru 7/2007 below we see the Mean and Standard Deviation Plot. The water starts to warm from July reaching a peak in September. From this chart we see a range of temperatures of almost 20 F with a low of 47.6 F to a high of close to 68F.

Buoy 46012 Mean and Standard Deviation
HMB 11/1980-7/2007

The last major El Nino event occurred in the winter 1997-1998. Having been a coastal resident in those years I can remember similarities in climate, temperature/humidity as well as the very high rain totals about twice normal. There is ocean temperature data from buoy's 46012 (HMB) and 46026 (SF) readily available over the last 17 years. However water temperature data for buoy 46012 (HMB) was not operational (for some unknown reason) in 1997. Fortunately buoy 46026 (SF) does have some data for 1997.

I'm curious as to water temperatures in 1997 and today to see what can be wrung out from the data. To simplify this process I used 60 F as a temperature to search for knowing the water temperature for those years rarely topped 60F.   It should be noted that these buoy records record data hourly throughout the year so data can be daunting. Basically over 8000 observations are made yearly on about 13 parameters including air and water temperatures, wave height and period and more.    

I used data from both the HMB and SF buoys to compare how often the water temperature rose above 60F over comparison years. First looking at the data for buoy 46012 (HMB) for years 1991-2013 which is full records are available. For this 23 year period the average number of records for temperatures over 60F is 184 per year. Four of those years had zero records over 60F! In that period 1992 had the most 60F records which were 1077. In 2014 the total records over 60F was 3553 which is magnitudes greater than the 23 year average and is almost 4 times greater than the previous high of 1077. So far in 2015 records are up to date thru July and 714 records have exceeded 60F. This does not include August and September typically the hottest water temperature months. So it appears 2015 will probably have 60F plus records similar to 2014 which is historically high!

Examination of the data for buoy 46026(SF) shows a yearly average from 1998-2013 of 116.5 records. As previously mentioned the HMB buoy was nonfunctional in 1997 for water temperature. However the SF buoy was operational and there were 1765 records for 60F in that El-nino  year. In 2014 there were 1431 records of 60F. Although the HMB buoy had over twice the number of records in 2014 , 3553 as the SF buoy which was 1765! 

Buoy Comparisons 1980-Present

Buoys	Ave Yearly Records >60 F	High Record Year	2014	2015 Partial
Buoy 46012 (HMB)	184	1077 (1992)	3553	1320
Buoy 46026(SF)	116	1765 (1997 El Nino Yr)	1431	714

---

In summary we can see that 2014 and 2015 have significantly higher water temperatures and historical persistence!Buoy 46012 had 3553 records above 60F, the previous record being 1077 records in 1992. With 1320 records above 60F to date looks like 2015 will match 2014 for longevity of the record ocean temperatures.

Welcome To The Kakistocracy

Kakistocracy  Candidates are the Darlings
of Corporate Media

Kakistocracy is a form of government where the least qualified individuals are in power. It comes from the Greek κακιστος (kakistos) meaning “worst”), the superlative of κακος (kakos) meaning “bad”.

Pretty much every cable news network as well as most corporate news outlets run non-stop stories on about 20 Republican Candidates that desire to be President of the United States!

Most notably is Donald Trump who made a fuss (poorly veiled racism) about Obama's birth certificate and claimed Mexican immigrants where rapist and criminals. In addition he questioned John McCain's status as a war hero because he got caught??? The reason Trump did not get caught is you can't catch someone hiding behind deferments tucked away safely in the US out of harms way!

Yet one theme common among these candidates is an unbridled desire to send your love ones into harms way. I look at the Donald Trump phenomenon as well as the other war hawk candidates and wonder why kind of society would even consider such under qualified people to make critical decisions for them. It boils down to such a society is called a kakistokracy!  

Here are some common traits and characteristics of these candidates:

Highly religious and outspoken about their religion to such a point where their religious zeal blinds their objectivity and drives them to force a society to adhere to their religious and moral values. Abortion is an obsession to these folks to such an extent they would force a woman to die of medical complications rather than granting an abortion.  Rick Santorium stated that the child of a woman raped should be considered a gift from God. 

Funny I thought our constitution was serious about separation of Church and State......in a Kakistokracy this is not so!

Most of these candidates are middle-aged or older white males with a love of guns and wars and a loathing for black and brown people and so called "illegals"! They spout their Christian love and at the same time love guns, war and the death penalty.  Their fundamental shortcoming is their lack of empathy for any human beings that deviate from their ideal! 

Their religion and lack of empathy or human understanding generates attitudes destructive to our very planet and it's inhabitants including all forms of life. Earth has been disrespected because of religious beliefs that the universe was created for man's pleasure and plunder. The evidence is in our fragile space ship is constant attack by greed driven corporations under the warm approval of the politicians that have been bought by these companies. The Republican party and it's right wing or Tea Party arm relishes corporate power and is tirelessly working on dismantling environmental protections that fly in the face of corporate profits. Their mantra is privatization and it does not take much digging to see how wonderful this concept is. Universities, prisons, Social Security, Medicare are all under threat by privatization. For profit schools rake the government student loan programs valiantly assisting students to get student loans for obscene tuition's and an education that is worthless leaving the student in unsupportable debt. This corporate manipulation is prevalent in all for profit endeavors, health care, prisons, and private armies to name some.  

 Mike Huckabee:  In August of 1998, Huckabee was one of 131 signatories to a full page USA Today Ad which declared: "I affirm the statement on the family issued by the 1998 Southern Baptist Convention." What was in the family statement from the SBC?  "A wife is to submit herself graciously to the servant leadership of her husband even as the church willingly submits to the headship of Christ."

Recently  he would consider involving the FBI and federal troops in his mad crusade to prevent abortions.

“I almost wish that there would be, like, a simultaneous telecast, and all Americans would be forced — forced at gunpoint no less — to listen to every David Barton message, and I think our country would be better for it. I wish it’d happen.” — YouTube, Rediscover God in America conference.

Lastly for Mike, he has a friend called Ted Nugent, enough said!

Chris Christie, this man is good at making enemies and rattling peoples cages. Politically I don't agree with him but more important is his attitude towards animals.  The greatness of a nation can be judged by the way its animals are treated, a saying attributed to Mahatma Gandhi. Christie vetoed a bi-partisan bill that would give sows more pen room to make their lives a little easier. You would think a man of his girth would have more empathy for animals in such confined spaces. Did I mention these guys don't seem to have a lot of empathy for people or animals. 

Sen. Marco Rubio  was among the Florida state legislators who voted for the so-called "Scarlet Letter" law in 2001 that required single mothers to publish their sexual histories in the newspaper in order to place their babies up for adoption.

Scott Walker: Speaking to reporters [in Iowa] Saturday after an appearance at the Family Leader Summit, Walker said the next president will need to be prepared to take aggressive action against Iran, "very possibly" including military strikes, on the day he or she is inaugurated, and said he would not be comfortable with a commander in chief who is unwilling to act aggressively on day one of a new presidency.

Ted Cruz:  The Texas senator and Tea Party favorite was the first to throw his hat into the ring on March 23. A committed Southern Baptist, Cruz has been outspoken about religious freedom, both at home and abroad, and has taken a strong stance against same-sex marriage. He is currently seeking to introduce legislation to protect each state's right to make its own decision on the issue.

Jeb Bush: When asked by a citizen about ISIS Jeb blamed Obama. The citizen correctly informed Mr Bush that ISIS was created by his war criminal brother and his despicable administration.  

I shudder to think if one of these candidates had been elected President instead of Obama what a mess we as Americans would be in right now. When a person lacks empathy they lack all rational understanding which results in being ignorant of who they are! If they knew who they were they would not be so eager to bomb and maim other people.  

    

Hullucinating Lone Wolf

Seal Rocks San Francisco

I've been struggling to get a handle on the data available such as historic temperature and humidity records to try an grapple with the changes occurring on the San Mateo Coast climate wise. I've been feeling the changes for about 3-4 years now but I seem to be a lone wolf in this "feeling" as most people I bring this up to look at me like I'm hallucinating! I thought surely it's warmer and there is less fog, this should be demonstrable thru historic weather data. I did find that in January 2014 the average temperature was approximately 7 degrees higher than historical records for San Francisco Airport. However other months I checked around that time had much less variation in temperature! Later I turned to humidity data as my sense is increased humidity is an integral part of the climate puzzle. However I'm not a meteorologist and examining humidity data shed no light for me as the fog plays a big roll in skewing the humidity data. Looking at the data on foggy days coastside humidity is 100% and humidity varies widely throughout the day varying with the ebb and flow of the fog.

On about April 3rd 2015 I felt that distinctive AC coolness return after a long absence! By accident I found out that the local ocean temperature holding at about 57 degrees F for several months dropped to about 52 F. This held thru May and early June and during this period I found my self overjoyed every time that wonderful cool air enveloped my body.

On about July 5th the most bizarre aspect of this 4 year drought occurred and continues today July 8th in a somewhat reduced fashion. The ocean temperature at buoy 46012 off Half Moon Bay shot up to 65 F rapidly in a few hours a good 10+ degrees above normal. Although a heavy fog was attached to the coast line the humidity was so high at my residence I was sweating heavily and uncomfortable at 7 pm, something I've never experience in my 16 year stay on the coast. Again on July 6th the ocean temperature soared to 65 F once again. Just writing this I can sense most people will think big deal, but this is a really big deal for the coastside and the state of California and for the world! Now buoy 46012 is more an accurate predictor than other data I've been following.

Computer models are now predicting a significant  El Niño event perhaps even an historical event. I'm getting further and further away from the thought that our climate will return to normal, thats a concern for me as I thrive in a Mediterranean type climate typical of the central California coast. On a positive note, we may see more southern species wildlife such as boobies, frigates and other southern climate birds and marine mammals! 

Since July 6th 2015 up to July 12 2015 the water temperature at the buoy has reached 65 degree F everyday. I'm currently researching the records for such a warm period but believe this clip is unprecedented. Notice the CDAS chart, the Pacific is basically on fire right now!

Buoy 46012 Standard Deviation
11/19/80-7/2007

Deviation from Historical Data
Compiled 7/13/15

August 4, 2015 Update

Conditions are currently warming up in the Pacific, and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center expects a greater than 90% chance that El Nino will continue through the winter and most likely into the spring. This image shows the July 13-19, 2015 sea surface temperature departure from the 1981-2010 average. In addition to the warmer than normal waters generated by the El Nino conditions, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is also creating persistently higher than normal sea surface temperatures in the northeastern Pacific. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)