A Simple Mathematical Phenomenon is about to Blind-Side Planet Earth!

One Kind of Blind-side

 "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Prof. Al Bartlett  

It’s very frustrating to see so many people constantly trying to spin scientific data in a deceitful way in order to add weight to their ill-informed arguments about the calamity now suffocating our planet! The big problem with this argument is that it is peeing away the precious little time we have to recognize and fix our space ship before it blows up! The question is how do you convince a population that has been dumbed down by corporate manipulation of the media, television, newspapers, magazines, religion and the internet to such an extent that it is widely believed by many the earth is a mere 6000 years old! It’s insane to think a religious idea or position such as Intelligent Design is being bandied about as a legitimate alternative to evolution? Why are so many people duped into such an illogical stream of thought? Yes brain washing is part of the problem but I think a major contributor to this form of delusion is the inability or lack of desire to understand the simplest of mathematical and geological time concepts.

Despite what I just said about people being dumbed down, there is one thing that will get people’s attention and initiate action, and that is direct experience or observation with negative changes occurring on planet Earth. Yes this will be painfully obvious as the situation worsens, sea level rise, loss of coastal lands, major flooding and displacement of populations. The bad news is once it gets to this extreme point, it’s over, the tipping point has been reached and the human race is about to be blindsided by one of the most scariest physical phenomenon’s simply and perfectly described by a little equation called exponential growth.

Figure 1.
Exponential Curve for Bacteria

Exponential growth is a predictive equation and describes many natural, economical, and physical behaviors such as population growth, compound interest, nuclear reactions and just about any system feed by an expansion and growth. One of the most common and simplest examples of exponential growth is related to growth rate or doubling time in simple interest problems. In a nut shell $100.00 invested for 10 years will see that money double in 7 years for a 7% growth rate.

“When things get bad, they get bad in a hurry!”

I’m not going to go into details on the mathematics here as it is well explained on the internet and I will link to some very simple and powerful examples. Basically I'm using the late Doctor  Albert Bartlett's presentation on exponential growth using bacteria as an example. The interactive presentation "Understanding Exponential Growth" is found here and I have condensed it somewhat in my presentation. I want to concentrate on the stunning example of bacteria growth and how this example shockingly paints the scenario the human race is about to face.

          http://www.cairco.org/reference/exponential-growth-doubling-time-rule-70

The truly shocking thing about this example is that once it is recognized it is far too late to act. The bacteria example I’m about to summarize paints the bleak picture in the most simplistic mathematical relationship. Understanding this concept one will realize the cornerstone of Capitalism can never work and will only destroy the financial basis our society is built upon. This is called unlimited expansion or growth and shows that resources and populations need a zero growth rate to be viable.

 http://www.worldpopulationbalance.org/exponential-growth-tutorial/bacteria-exponential-growth.html

The link above connects to an interactive web page using bacteria growth as the example. I’m going to attempt to condense this down a little and show how it’s related to Climate Change and the ramifications of continuing on this growth path. If I do a poor job just click the link above and follow the tutorial and you will understand I’m certain.

Bacteria Example:

Figure 2.
Bacterium Added to Jar 11:00

Figure 3. 
Bacterium Split at 11;01

Bacteria is a well know organism that when healthy multiply in an exponential way. The experiment will follow the behavior of bacteria when a single bacterium is placed in an empty jar at 11am (a random time) and allowed to multiply until the jar is full which will happen after 1 hour or 12 noon.  A bacterium is placed in an empty jar at 11:00. At 11:01 the bacterium grows and splits in two, now there are 2 bacteria.  This process continues and the bacteria in the jar keeps dividing and adding more bacteria to the jar and doubling every 1 minute. Notice at 11:05 there are now 32 bacteria and yet so small a microscope is needed to see them. The bacteria continue doubling every minute for 1 hour until 12 noon when the bottle is full. I'm going to examine the bacteria jar's 1 hour experiment and see the growth state and ramifications of each state. Lets examine the question at what time will the jar be 1/2 full? The jar will be 1/2 full at 11:59, the jar is 1/4 full at 11:58. So when the jar is 1/4 full, only 2 minutes remain until the jar is full. In other words the jar took 58 minutes to reach the 1/4 level and only 2 minutes to be totally full!.

Figure 4.
At 11;05 the bacteria has increased
 from 1 to 32 in 5 minutes

Figure 6 shows the jar's content from 11:54 through 12:00. At 11:45 the bacteria is hardly visible and at 11:30 the bacteria could only be seen with a microscope! Examining figure 1 the actual exponential growth curve we can see the growth of the bacteria tracks what appears to be pretty much straight line behavior until near the very end when it's exponential behavior sky rockets in the very waning seconds of the bacteria's life. The straight line part of this equation and it's not really a straight line tends to fool researchers into thinking it's a straight line problem with predictable values at any given time!  Looking again at figure 6 we can see very little signs of growth say up to 11:54, doubling is shown for the last few minutes in this example. When things get bad, they get bad in a hurry!.......no doubt!

What Time is It?

Figure 5.
Bacteria Jar Full at 12;00

The more we know about a growth system the more we can predict it's behavior. Looking at planet earth in relationship to climate change numerous undefined systems are working together in an interconnected way. Down at the Waddell Sea in the southern ocean the frozen ocean expels salt into a brine. This brine formed at 1 trillium gallons per hour is the backbone of earth's ocean currents. The currents in turn make the weather all over the globe. Consider this an interconnected living organism all working together as a single unit. It has to be understood in it's entirety and cannot be accurately divided into the individual components. This is a common mistake when people try to isolate weather phenomenon such as snow fall in Buffalo and wonder how can the earth be warming when it's so damn cold in Buffalo?   Perhaps if they examined further they may see the connection between the snow in Buffalo and the extreme drought in much of California.  It's all the signature of a distressed system.

Figure 7
time 12:01

Figure 6
Doubling Time Stages

Let's take a look at possible solutions and their likely outcomes. Being an engineer myself I've come to understand that given enough money, resources and time just about any concept, no matter how outrageous can probably be completed. Some amazing projects come to mind like the Millau Viaduct in France, the CERN Large Hadron Collider in Geneva which is 27 Km in circumference, and the Kansai international airport in Japan and the salvaging of the luxury line the Costa Concordia. So I guess it's no wonder that some so called Geo Engineers think they can solve the problem by outrageous schemes such as Russ George an American businessman illegally dumped 100 tons of iron sulphate into the Pacific Ocean off of British Columbia in 2012. The result was the formation of a 10000 square kilometer artificial plankton bloom visible from satellite as high concentrations of chlorophyll in an attempt to lower CO2 content in the atmosphere! Here is a novel idea, let's fix what we broke and return the planet back to as close as we can to it's natural state.

Let's continue with the bacteria example and take a look of possible actions to mitigate or change the outcome. In a situation like the bacteria or population growth the obvious solution seems easily obtained by adding more space or more empty jars in the bacteria case.  So let's add 3 more totally empty jars to the mix now we have 4 times the space we originally had. Well here we go, let's do the math. At 12;01 our original jar doubles and whoa we had to fill another jar! So we still have 2 empty jars to play with but once again doubling gives us 1 more minute of time until all 4 jars are full!

Figure 8
Time 12:02

What's this look like for world population, our population had doubled twice in the last 100 years. If population growth is 1.3 % we can calculate there would be 1 person per square meter in 780 years and in 2400 years the mass of people on earth will equal the mass of earth! Fortunately the worlds population growth has been shrinking and currently the growth rate is about 1.19%. It should be noted that any growth rate greater than zero will produce the same results eventually.

Conclusions:

I presented this exercise because I think it's a very simple and dramatic demonstration of the exponential or doubling concept. I present this as an alternative way at looking at Climate Change from the perspective and nonlinear equations as opposed to linear equations. Considering all the complex systems working within our planet such as greenhouse gases, ocean currents, weather patterns, temperature changes, ocean and atmospheric compositional health, species distribution and over-all species health is there an unchecked growth pattern baring down on us right now. Consider the measured CO2 in the atmosphere currently at 400 ppm (parts per million). In 1958 it was 315 ppm. During the ice age CO2 concentrations ranged between 180-280 ppm. So with respect to CO2 or ocean acidification or any other complex system what does this mean? I have no clue and I think a lot of people are in the same boat. We don't understand the systems we are tinkering with and more importantly we don't know what time it is????

Bizarre Bird Tale

On a recent Beach Watch Survey at Tomasini Creek on Tomales Bay a freshly dead adult Brown Pelican was found with a dead Double Crested Cormorant stuck in it's pouch! Apparently the pelican mistook the diving cormorant as a fish, a fatal mistake for both!

Dead Pelican With Dead
Double-crested Cormorant in Pouch

Brown Pelican and Double-crested Cormorant

The New Canon 7D Mark II and Bird Photography

I recently added the new Canon 7D Mark II (7D2) camera to my photography equipment. This is not a technical review of the 7D2 but rather just first impressions based on what I have learned about the camera so far. I’m not including comparison photos at this time, just general comments on the new camera and its relationship with bird photography. I’ve been using the Canon 7D for about 4 years now and decided to add the 7D2 basically to have a second Canon body and enjoy the new features of the 7D2 especially with respect to bird photography.

I started out in bird photography about 7 years ago with an Olympus E-1 body, one of the first digital DSLRs. I added the 50-200 Zuiko lens which is excellent and the 70-300 Olympus lens which suffers greatly in IQ (image quality) at longer reaches. Because the 50-200 was on the low end for reach in bird photography, I splurged and added the Zuiko 300 f2.8 lens to my collection. I consider this one of the finest lenses available and would match it up favorably to the longer Canon lenses, the 500 f4 and 600 f4 lens family. Since my specialty and goals are birds in flight (BIF) the big weighty lenses just mentioned are a challenge to quickly move for BIF, and I found frequent use and arm exercises greatly enhance one’s ability to swing such weight quickly? The Olympus DSLR family includes the E3 which I have and the latest E5 which I did not buy. In the DSLR world Olympus is a notch below Canon and Nikon. Olympus appears to have lost interest in the DSLR world and has jumped whole heartily into the mirrorless realm. If I had known this when I first bought the Olympus, I would have probably opted for the Canon line. However at that time I was not into bird photography that grew shortly after.

Hand Held Extreme

I've been posting my photos on Flickr since about 2008 and in that time I've gotten to know and be familiar with many bird photographers. There is a friendly competition among bird photographers and I’ve been inspired and challenged by other photographers work to constantly improve my own! . When checking photos on Flickr, the EXIF information is generally available and is a good tool to see what other parameters people use such as ASA, shutter speed and exposure compensation to name a few. I started to notice some of the really good BIF photos were being shot on the Canon 7D with the 400 f5.6 and the 100-400 L IS lenses. I started to look carefully at the 400 f5.6 photos and was impressed by the IQ. So when Olympus introduced the E5 a light bulb came on. I could invest about $1500 in the E5 to basically replace the E3 or I could spend about the same for the 7D and add the 400 f5.6 lens for about $1400 more. So to me the choice was simple, I could spend just $1400 more and have a brand new rig to play with or just update to the E5 with only a new questionably better body. I bought the 7D and the 400 f5.6 lens and have no regrets. With the new light 400 lens and the excellent tracking and focusing of the 7D I saw a large improvement in keepers due to the better focusing and the ability to get on a bird faster.

BIF

I have recently added the new Canon 7D Mark II to my equipment and have had only a short time to play with it. Although similar to the 7D it’s more sophisticated and complicated and has incorporated the focusing and tracking systems of the Canon 1DX. I’ve only touched the surface on understanding the new camera but it’s almost flawless out of the box in that without understanding the features or operation of the camera, its focus and exposure is spot on most of the time! I’d like to spend some time talking about why I think the 7D2 is an excellent choice for BIF and why some criticisms of the camera for noise and not being a full frame camera are not that important in BIF photography.

Let’s talk about BIF photography and how to get enjoyable results. I want to make a distinction between two types of bird photography, birds in flight photography and stationary or perched bird photography. Most bird photographers engage in both types but some may emphasize one more than the other. The techniques for the types are different and often times the equipment as well. In a nut shell BIF photography requires quick action with little or no time for adjustments. Birds only give you a split second to get your shot; you won’t have time for any kind of quick adjustments, so you need to be as ready as possible when the opportunity presents itself. Your camera should be pre-adjusted for shutter speed, aperture, ISO and exposure compensation. If possible try to pre-focus and position yourself in favorable light. Some BIF photographers will use a tripod or monopod, but I've found those devices restrict your maneuverability and tend to just get in the way and hinder you. One exception is finding perched birds with the intent of getting flight take off photos. In this case a monopod or tripod would be an aid as it’s very hard to hand hold a heavy camera in anticipation of a perched bird taking off. In contrast shooting stationary or perched birds changes the game significantly. A tripod or monopod is very beneficial in your set up since the bird is stationary. You have time to optimize parameters such as shutter speed, exposure compensation and composition. You can even take photos check them and make adjustments. In this respect it’s more like portrait or landscape photography. Most of my discussion on this subject will be from the BIF photographers view point.

 Obviously equipment is important so let’s discuss that now. Birds in flight are fast and therefore to stop the motion of a flying bird to get maximum detail a fast shutter speed is critical. Generally I aim to get all motion stopped including the wings. This is fairly easy with a large slow flying bird such as gulls or pelicans. In some cases wing movement adds some drama to a photo but detail is lost in the moving wings. A humming bird for example has a wing speed of about 1/9000 to 1/20000 of a second. Consider the fastest shutter speed on most cameras is about 1/8000 of a second. So to stop the hummer’s wings most serious people incorporate a flash system for stop motion. This technique is beyond this discussion but shows an extreme range of speeds. Most other birds are within the range of our cameras shutter speed to stop all motion. I recommend a shutter speed of 1/1000 of a second or more. I have actually not done a study to see how low a shutter speed can be to stop a particular bird, for example a comparison between a cormorant and a swallow. This would be an interesting study as shutter speed, aperture and ISO are all interconnected and the more you know about them the more you can optimize these parameters. Low shutter speed causes blurring in moving objects, large apertures reduce Depth of Field (DOF) and high ISO generates digital noise.

Using Monopod for Stationary Subject 

 The major criticism I’ve heard about the 7D2 is noise as compared to the 1DX, 5DIII, or the Sony Alfa 7S. The DPreview web site has a feature where you can compare all new cameras on the same subject but at different ISO settings. At high ISO, the 1DX was superior to the 5DIII and the 7D2, and the Sony Alfa 7S was best of all! The 7D2 was improved over the 7D. On my 7D I can safely shoot (little noise) at 800 ISO. On the 7D2 I can raise that to 1600 ISO. I did some test shoots at 3200 ISO and found the noise unacceptable! The ability to shoot at high ISO no doubt allows one to tweak shutter speed and aperture in a positive way. High ISO is critical in low light situations, indoors, landscapes, weddings, concerts, dark areas and more. BIF is not a low light situation, and it’s foolish to try and photograph birds in flight in low light and most birds don’t fly at night! So in general high ISO performance is not a major concern for BIF and I see no drawbacks with the 7D2 in that respect.


Full Frame Vs APS-C crop sensors: Another bone of contention is sensor size, full frame verses crop sensors. Full frame people will tell you a crop sensor APS-C has reduced IQ and is not necessary at all. The full frame sensor captures all the information of a crop sensor and more. Cropping the full frame down to the crop frame size gives the same image only higher IQ! So they argue any perceived advantage of a crop sensor is just an illusion and the photographer is fooling himself by thinking so. An important and tangible advantage for the bird photographer using a crop sensor system is a reduction of cost and weight of long lenses. In other words a 400 lens becomes the equivalent of 640 lens when used with a Canon 1.6 crop camera body. Here is a comparison between weight and cost using a Canon 400 f5.6 L lens (weight 2.76 pounds, @ $1400) versus the Canon 600 f4.0 L IS II (weight 8.65 pounds @ $12000). Right off the bat, there will be an argument that these two lenses cannot be compared because there is a vast difference in quality and IQ. Although these sounds like a compelling arguments on the surface how true is it? Based on price, you have an 8.5 times different in costs; is the 600 lens really 8.5 times better in IQ and sharpness? I’ve compared bird photos from the 600 lens as well as the 400 and it’s a real stretch to say there is an 8.5 times difference. There is a difference of course and the more distant the subject to the lens, the more IQ you can see in the 600. However, when the subject gets closer to the lens, that IQ difference dissipates in a hurry.

Check the MTF curves of both lenses and there is certainly not an 8.5 times difference. For BIF try wielding an 8 pound lens quickly to get on a bird, not an easy task. However the 2.6 pound 400 f5.6 L can easily and quickly be whipped around and locked on a BIF. My Zuiko 300 f2.8 lens weights about 7.5 pounds slightly less in weight than the new Canon 500 and 600 lenses. Using it everyday hand held I still did arm exercises to increase my on bird speed. Still there were frustrating times that I missed a bird just because I could not get on it quickly. Another criticism of the 400 f5.6 L lens is that it does not have IS (image stabilization) For BIF, this is not critical at all, generally shooting is at high shutter speeds where IS is not required or useful! One last point I’d like to make for anybody in the market for the 400 f5.6 L or the 100-400 f4.5-5.6 L IS lenses. This comparison does not include the new Canon 100-400 f4.5-5.6 L IS II which I’m not familiar with. There is no doubt a zoom lens gives the photographer more flexibility in the field. However, one complaint I hear by owners of the old 100-400 f4.5-5.6 is IQ at longer reaches say 300-400 is not all that good. Check the MTF charts for the 2 lenses and you will readily see the difference.

 Summary of Some EOS 7D Mark II Features 

 •20.2 Megapixel CMOS APS-C Sensor supporting next generation Dual Pixel CMOS sensor-based AF
•10.0 fps continuous shooting for up to 130 JPG/31 RAW frames
•Dual DIGIC 6 Processors
•Highly customizable AF system featuring 65 All Cross Type AF Points with f/8 center point sensitive to -3 EV extreme low-light conditions
•ISO 100-16000 with expansion to 51200
•Magnesium alloy body, shutter durability rated up to 200,000 cycles and enhanced dust and weather resistance
•EOS Scene Detection System features a new 150,000-pixel RGB+IR Metering Sensor for improved precision

Summary

I consider the 7D an excellent choice for bird photography. I was hoping Canon would up-grade the 7D with improvements in the sensor and resulting improvements in focusing and continuous shooting speeds. Canon has not disappointed the 7D2 is an improvement over the 7D in which improvements seem particularly aimed at action photographers such as sports and wildlife. So with little hands on experience with the 7D2 thus far, I'm confident that I have more tools now at my disposal to continue my bird photography passion.  In closing I would like to make a comment about photographic equipment and it's relationship to artistic expression. Although high tech sophisticated expensive equipment is nice to have, it's not critical to artistic creation. A really creative photographer can get astounding results with the simplest camera, even a pin hole camera. So if you think purchasing the latest and greatest camera equipment will make one a good photographer, think again! As Maria Mulder once exclaimed in a song long ago, "it aint the meat it's the motion" very true indeed!

Backyard Bird Up-date

Red-breasted Sapsucker YB#79
Master Woodworker

Since I last blogged about my back yard bird list in May 2013 I've added 5 new species to the list. Here are the latest additions, Say's Phoebe, Olive-sided Flycatcher, Mallard, Belted Kingfisher and most recently Red-breasted Sapsucker. 
The discovery of the Red-breasted Sapsucker has been very informative and rewarding in many ways. It is working a walnut tree in my yard, making geometric excavations in the bark of several branches. I don't know how long this have been going on, but I only became aware of it when the leaves of the tree started to fall revealing the handiwork of the sapsucker. What was surprising to me was that two other bird species were also interested in the flow of sap, the Yellow-rumped Warbler and the Ruby-crowned Kinglet, see photos. I've heard the term sapsucker but now that I've seen one in person, I have a better understanding of how one operates. 

Yellow-rumped Warblers winter in the Bay Area and leave for Canada/Alaska in late April. They are the most common warbler on the Farallon Islands. I most frequently see them at Pillar Point Harbor catching kelp flies. I've also seen them with a brownish substance around the base of the bill which has been mistaken by some folks as oil. However this is apparently residue from Eucalyptus flowers, so I've been told. This species can also digest wax so that wax myrtle and poison oak berries are also on the menu, not a common diet for bug eaters! Finally I was surprised to see a Ruby-crowned Kinglet feeding on the sap as well.


Like many birders, I’ve just started documenting a back yard bird list for my house in Moss Beach, California. I’m pleased to report after 4 years in this location I have 80 bird species so far. My good friend Pete of Martinez California also has 74 bird species for his location. We are in a friendly completion and are currently in a dead heat.

Yellow-rumped Warbler YB#47
Mining Sap

Ruby-crowned Kiglet
YB#80



Great-horned Owl

Back yard bird counts usually involve counts made from a specific point, residence, gallery, or business. One such location is the resident quarters at the Farallones Islands which as of 2010 has a bird species count of 360. This is believed to be the most prolific in the United States. Paul Leham of New Jersey claims 300 + at his residence. The Farallones Islands have been criticized because the count is compiled by many individuals keeping records over a long time frame. However Peter Pyle a biologist who spent significant time at the Farallones claims 324 species documented by him alone on his visits to the Farallones.





#74 Hooded Oriole 5/3/13

# 73 Western Tanager 5/2/13

So my 80 species count is pretty modest in relationship to other bird spots, but it’s always fun to add a new bird to the list. Most of the birds on my list are common birds found in this area, Brewer’s Black Birds, House finches and sparrows, Scrub Jays, Dark-eyed Juncos, Mourning Doves, California Quail and Ravens. Some of the slightly unusual birds have been an Osprey, Kestrel, Killdeer and my favorite occasional visitor, Great-horned Owl. Some of the recent additions have been Cedar Waxwings, a Hooded Oriole and a beautiful Western Tanager.





Ridiculously Resilient Ridge Loses Grip!

Rock  Dock
Pillar Point Harbor 12/12/14

It’s been about a year since I’ve blogged about the local climate here in Moss Beach, on the California coast, see Perpetual Summer. 

In that post I commented on the weather changes I've experience Coastside and I stated the weather patterns have changed during the 2013 year based on my observation over 16 years of being a Coastside resident. So far it’s not been easy to quantify these changes thru temperature variation, rain fall, historical humidity data and other variables. Recently we’ve had a nice change to our weather pattern where the persistent high pressure ridge that has blocked much of Northern California’s rain has dissipated allowing more normal winter weather for much of December. At this point I’m going to do a re-cap of the recent past with respect to weather, ecology, the local environment, human and animal habitat and the effects on our coastal habitat wellbeing!

Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (RRR):

There has been much talk and speculation about the high pressure ridge that has been parked over California now for 2-3 years, deflecting storms to the north. In the past high pressure ridges come and go as normal weather patterns; however this unprecedented ridge seems to be self-reinforcing with a positive feedback loop that maintains itself.  Its persistence is unheard of in the normal meteorology realm and has been christened the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge RRR by David Swain, a Stanford University Doctoral Candidate who blogs at weatherwest.com. As mentioned before, this RRR has appeared to have dissipated at least temporarily as evidence by our nice December rain fall. Nobody knows why this high pressure ridge has been so tenacious and persistent; there are many factors in play here, ocean temperature, current and wind patterns, increased carbon distribution, pollution, solar flares. Again, the problem cannot be understood on a local level, it’s the entire earth universe interconnected system that needs understanding, no easy task and not likely in the near future.

Pescadero Creek Flow to Ocean

Let’s look at ocean temperatures: 
Higher than normal temperatures have been observed along the Northern California coast. This amounts to a 5-6 ° F temperatures increase over historic averages, ranking among the warmest recorded in the last 30 years. In October, it was 65 degrees off the Farallon Islands and in Monterey Bay, and 69 degrees off Point Conception near Santa Barbara. Normally these temperatures would be I the upper 50’s to low 60’s! The last time the ocean off California was this warm was in 1983 and 1997, both strong El Niño years that brought drenching winter rains to the West Coast. Recently, the water temperature at the Scripps pier in La Jolla was 71 degrees. The historic average back to 1916 for late October is 65 degrees.

I’m not exactly sure of how El Niño conditions are predicted, looks like it’s based on ocean temperatures and winds especially around the equator. Winds blowing from the north at the equator move warm water closer to the equator. This wind has apparently slackened somewhat allowing warmer water to move north.

What's happening are winds that normally blow from the north, trapping warm water closer to the equator, have slackened since the summer. That's allowed the warm water to move north. However, the water at the equator has only warmed slightly making an El Niño event predicted to be mild. The warmer ocean temperatures have negatively affected upwelling a critical food chain event where churning cold water from down below pushes up ocean nutrients such as plankton and krill. More warm water southern species of birds and marine mammals and turtles have been observed recently in Northern California. Other common species such as Cassin’s Auklets have been gravely impacted by mediocre upwelling and scarcity of krill in the northern ocean. 

Pumpkins Moss Beach, California 

Personal Observations and Comments:

I would also like to point out; I’ve lived in the Bay Area for 46 years and have been a frequent visitor to the coast before I actually moved to the coast. As we are all aware of the devastating drought that continues into its third year, it should be noted the last 3 years has the least precipitation in a 3 year stretch in recorded California History.  It’s now becoming apparent to me that the ground level effects of the drought are now visible in plain sight. We’ve all seen the dramatic pictures of lakes and reservoirs drying up, boat docks sitting on dry ground, the water receding, at Folsom Lake, San Luis Reservoir, Shasta Lake and many more. Shasta Lake is at 35% capacity as of July 2014. Here locally vegetation is dying all around, trees, shrubs, native and non-native plants. My yard Ceanothus, normally a hardy native plant when mature now requires frequent watering or it starts to turn yellow and die. Fires are raging all around the state, the air is often dirty or smoggy and Spare the Air Days are frequent. Blue Oaks, the most widely distributed oak trees in California are in bad shape, soil moisture levels are at 2.5%, and normally they are 12-18%.

All year, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have been forecasting an El Niño, conditions in which warm ocean water at the equator near South America can affect the weather in dramatic ways. But now the water is only slightly warmer than normal at the equator, leading scientists to declare a mild El Niño is on the way. And although strong El Niños often have brought wet winters to California, mild ones have just as often resulted in moderate or dry winters.

Cassin’s Auklet Die-off:

Hundreds of HY hatch year Cassin’s Auklets have been found dead on northern California beaches recently due to starvation. Cassin’s Auklets are krill eaters solely and that source of food has diminished greatly and is believed responsible for the current Cassin’s Auklet die-off!

Warm Water and Southern Ocean Observations:

Folks at Point Blue Science, a nonprofit group from Petaluma, Ca have documented more than 100 Common Dolphins off the Farallon Islands, a species normally found off of Southern California.  

The Point Blue scientists have scooped up a tiny species of ocean snail called the tropical sea butterfly, normally found far to the south. They have documented a Guadalupe fur seal, normally found off Baja California in Mexico; blue buoy barnacles and purple-striped jellyfish, which usually drift off Southern California; and a Guadalupe murrelet, a tiny seabird that frequents Mexico. Other observations noted by Point Blue are as follows quoted directly from Point Blue:

In September, a fisherman off San Francisco caught an endangered green sea turtle, an extremely rare find for Northern California, since the species usually lives off Mexico and the Galapagos Islands. He returned it to the sea unharmed.

Similar tales are turning up in Southern California, where fishermen and scientists have found Hawaiian ono, along with tripletail, a fish species commonly found between Costa Rica and Peru, and other warm-water species.

In August and September there were even sightings of skipjack tuna and giant sunfish, or mola mola, off Alaska.

Conclusions:

From a local standpoint, I’ve continued to make an effort to identify a smoking gun so that we have a starting point in which to begin turn around action. I’ve not been able up to now to identify that gun on a local level but it’s apparent there are many smoking guns and it’s surprising that many people want to suppress evidence of those smoking guns. It’s surprising in that some deniers will accept the possibility of climate change, but not the notion it’s caused by human beings? If not human beings….WHO OR WHAT? We are aiding and abetting corporations in their incessant sledge hammering our planet into oblivion. Want smoking guns; just follow the money and the corporations that wield large piles of money around buying countries, and their natural resources and politicians in an insane effort to sustain unbridled growth that can only destroy our economic system along with the planet that sustains it!

While about 97% of climate scientist are agreeing that human activity is affecting our climate, there is a smaller number and growing number of scientist that insist we have already passed the tipping points of self-re-enforcing climate feedback loops and in essence the human population is doomed!  The term Near Term Human Extinction is being bandied around by some people and may well be a common term in the near future. I don’t know if we have reached a tipping point somewhere in our bio system, but a tipping point we have not reached is our ambivalence and indifference to what the powerful greed heads of our population are doing to this small planet! There should be a worldwide outcry and unprecedented action to stop the destruction and rape of planet earth. What we get instead is SILENCE!

We need a tipping point of indignation and disgust at what we are allowing to happen to our habitat and the future habitat of our children. We cannot depend on the bought and sold politicians we have elected, not only are they driven by stupidity and greed, they are shallow inferior people that have no credentials to be leaders and yet they dominate and control all decisions that affect the world population. Let’s look at some of the people we have chosen to represent us and make decisions for us. We have a Supreme Court justice that is a publically admitted homophobe and racist. A large portion of our Republican politicians not only deny climate change but insist evolution is bunk and the earth is 6000 years old! These people make decisions that impinge our lives and those of our children. Look at the class of morons that the Republican Party paraded before us in the last two presidential primaries. The pizza salesman was probably the most innocuous, but how low can you go with Sara Palin, Michelle Bachman, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Mike Huckabee! How can anybody consider electing these religious zealots and war mongers to run the most powerful country in the world? There is a name for this kind of government it’s called a Kakistocracy, a system of rule by the worst men!  I don’t hold out a lot of hope for the future of mankind on this planet; we even seem to want to strengthen our Kakistocracy as evident by our recent elections. 

Crimes Against Humanity

Northern Elephant Seals Jostling

There is one thing we can say about the obscenity going on in the Middle East and that is war crimes are being committed on both sides, the Palestinians launching rockets into Israel and Israel targeting civilians. Who is responsible and culpable, that’s easy, the leaders of Israel and Palestine, and these crimes have been going on for years with the blessing of these so called leaders! If we lived in a sane and just world, these people would be rounded up and charged with Crimes Against Humanity! Since the world we created does not work that way, empathetic people are relegated to sitting on the sidelines and weeping! 

We can expect no help from our elected leaders and the corporate news mouth pieces that obsequiously report the propaganda without question.  The good news recently is that social media reporting is countering the government propaganda that these news channels constantly mouth! I've seen a slight shift in the Gaza reporting because eye witness reporting and smart phone videos are making cable channels seem silly, biased, and unbelievable; They should be embarrassed. 

Benjamin Netanyahu constantly reminds people that Israel does not target civilians. When you launch massive bombs into a densely populated city, civilians are going to die, that’s a given. So Israel is most definitely targeting civilians, actions not words prove this true! It’s ironic that over 1000 civilians not targeted have been killed. Further evidence demonstrating Israel’s disdain for civilians occurred at the end of the 2006 Israeli Lebanon conflict. After the UN Security Council called for an immediate halt to hostilities, Israel dropped 4 million cluster bombs during the last days of the conflict.    These are the most indiscriminate weapons of modern warfare; 95 percent of all victims of cluster munitions are civilians, according to the organization Handicap International. So much for Israel not targeting civilians!

Thoughts on Time, Consciousness, Philosophers and Physics

Since the dual attack on my very existence, (as described in the following blog post:)(http://wildbayarea.blogspot.com/2014/06/the-sword-of-dontdropplease.html) I've been mulling over the experience of having an extremely unpleasant episode and not remembering it so that in my experience, it never happened?

This experience has awakened in me a renewed interest in life and death, time and consciousness. My wife Lynn was at my bedside for much of the time I was unconscious, hallucinating, and semi-conscious, and related my behavior during these times. I have no memory of most of this and from her descriptions of the pain I suffered during some procedures I’m thankful I don’t have a memory of it. 

Mt Shasta Lenticular Moment

When we are asleep it seems we still have a consciousness at work albeit on a minimal power. We are aware of dreams and noises and some actual noises we incorporate into our dreams. What I’m saying is even in a sleep state we are aware or so it seems. While in ICU, my body shut down completely for a time. Also, my body was shut down via drugs so I was in an induced coma. During these times Jack Sutton seemed to have disappeared out of existence.  I say this because I am told that there were times I was in excruciating pain, such as caused by medical procedures, twice I was subjected to spinal taps. Most of the time I spent in ICU I have absolutely no memory, that includes two separate times.  Having no memory of past events can be a good thing, especially when those events were traumatic, painful or unpleasant. If you don’t have a memory, then you cannot suffer further from a traumatic event by re-living it again. Why do we continually suffer from past events, it’s through memory and re-living these events that are brought back into consciousness through memory. Perhaps Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) is a good example of this. So the question is, can we erase memories that are unpleasant so that we only suffer once and never again by nasty experiences? I will return to this later.

When I was a young man, I spent a lot of time in thought experiments. One such experiment, involved imagining myself floating in outer space. I would travel to the far reaches of the universe but could never get to the end. I would contemplate questions like what’s beyond the end, what was there before the beginning, question I could not grasp or answer. When I asked myself these question, a brick wall went up stifling the thought. Years later after I had explored Buddhism and Hinduism, taken the EST Warner Earhart seminars, participated in the Avatar course, read the Course in Miracles, many books by Eastern Spiritual Gurus and New Age wannabes, some dim light appeared!  

One day I got the answer or at least a direction to the next step. The concepts of what was before the beginning or what’s after the end are thought limitations! We live and communicate in the world of thought, nothing outside that world can exist as long as we remain and communicate in the realm of thought. The Eastern philosophers grappled with this dilemma and believed the way out is through meditation. I always thought when asked, what is meditation, the best answer is It’s not what you think?  Most spiritual paths, Christian, Muslim, Buddhist and most others, emphasize meditation heavily. So in my present state of spiritual development, I’m over the thought restricted question and concentrating on where meditation might take me. I can’t make any super spiritual claims, it’s a difficult path and may not yield any results, but to me it’s worth pursuing.  

  

Look at time; it cannot exist outside of consciousness. How do we experience time, pretty much through consciousness? If I don’t see you for a while, then see you, my mind immediately brings up an image of you, a memory (not necessarily accurate) to compare with the present you. Since the two images are not the same, I infer you have changed (time), you look older, and thus time must have passed. Older/younger are thought restrictions that we have adapted as true. Imagine floating in space, the only objects we encounter are celestial bodies, through consciousness we calculate our relative position which is stored as a memory. Then later we check the celestial bodies, then compare to our memory of those bodies and determine the positions have changed and thus re-enforce the time concept. Without consciousness, the bodies remain the same or are always in the present moment, no time, no beginning no end!

Scientist creates models of phenomenon that they can test against their theories of exactly what is happening in any given system. If the results support the model, then the model is a good frame of reference to go further. The model however may not be construed as representing the actual thing being studied. We now have models for black holes, quarks, gravity and the Higgs boson particle; they don’t really represent the actuality, but are a good reference in that experiments are predicted by the models. Gravity is well understood and most of the advances in our world came able through the gravity mathematical model. However if you ask most scientist what gravity is, they cannot answer, the model works, but it is not gravity! As soon as experiments move away from the model, the model is discarded and a new model created. Recently the Higgs boson experiments have not behaved as predicted, so I suspect there are some scientist madly working up new theories and models.

I think some of the ancient eastern scholars where in tune with quantum mechanics without knowing it.

So what would the model of the known universe as we know it look like? Hmmm, I thought about this and what pops up a lot for me is the world as we know it is an illusion! Wow, we have really fooled ourselves and created an illusionary world. Even some physicist after studying quantum mechanics have said in deeply studying the universe, it eventually appears that we are studying our own consciousness!  This is where thought ends and the unknown begins!