El Niño Less Than Perfect!

Relentless Surf Pounds California Coast

As our winter slides to a conclusion it's worth a look at the impact El Niño has had on the San Francisco Bay Area with respect to the drought, Climate Change and coastal erosion!

After 3-4 years of below precipitation the rains of 2015-16 has brought the SF bay Area back to more normal conditions! As of March 14, 2016 the annual precipitation is normal or above for many Bay Area locations. The rains started seriously in December and continued into January, however February was close to totally dry and put a large damper on the El Niño effect. Fortunately March has given  El Niño new life in the early going but looking at future projections, this may be indeed the swan song for  El Niño 2015-16. The consensus seems to be  El Niño did not live up to the initial hype and fell short of the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niños.

I'm pretty much convinced that our 4 year drought is not a ephemeral aberration but rather an indication of our future climate as a result of human caused Climate Change. There has been droughts in the past and I've lived thru a fairly intense drought in the 1970's. However the difference is significant in that the current climate is warmer and more humid than in the past and seems inclined on staying this way. This dry February was an eye opener for anybody who believes we are likely to return to our normal climate. Remember the (RRR)  Ridiculously Resilient Ridge that has been parking it's self in our neighborhood and chasing all the storms north? That reappeared in February and dried the month out and elevated some temperatures into record territory!  It looks now like the rest of March will follow the same RRR pattern and thus El Niño fades into memory! NASA is reporting that February had global record-breaking temperatures by a stunning margin and warned of a 'climate emergency'.  In summary El Niño has produced welcome rain back into more normal range, however it did not generate quantities that the 1997-98 season produced. History tells us that a normal rainfall year is not dependent on  El Niño but after 4 drought years and finally a significant El Niño year and yet the rain fall is just average! So if we are now 15 years away from the next  El Niño does that mean we are looking at 15 years of sub-par rain, scary thought!

A remarkable companion to El Niño is the unusually high surf that has been pounding the California coast all winter.  The surf has been eroding the coast in spectacular fashion from Pacifica where 2 apartment buildings have been demolished, and in Miramar and Surfers Beach which are under going emergency repairs in an attempt to save the infrastructure.  In my next blog I will go into detail on coastal erosion and the effects of high surf!

King Tides Report January 21, 2016

El Niño Waves Pound Coast

Currently we are in the middle of the January King Tide event occurring 1/21/2016 thru 1/23/2016. During these events I monitor Miramar, Surfers Beach, Mavericks, and Pacifica, most notably around the Pacifica Pier.

Today at 7:52 am there was a 6.4 foot high tide. Barometric pressure was steady at 30.15 inchHg, wind was light, swells very small 2-3 feet. So today's King Tide was not very interesting due to poor conditions. However tomorrow looks like it could be very interesting on the coast. A significant storm is due in tonight and is predicted to carry on thru Friday morning at least. The surf report for Mavericks predicts 10-13 foot waves with 25-30 mph winds. High Tide will occur at 8:39 for Mavericks at about 6.4 feet.

The ocean has been more active during our  El Niño event than I've seen for many years. Recently there was very high surf that lasted for several days with spectacular wave action and damage along the coast. Beach Road in Pacifica is a street that runs parallel to the ocean around the Pacifica Pier and has been heavily damaged by the recent ocean assault and this has been widely reported in local news reports. Mirada Road, what's left of it,  is being battered on a daily basis and currently there is emergency repair work going on on the south end of the road. Mirada Road is no stranger to coastal retreat and destruction, years ago it stretched about a mile further up the coast near Surfers Beach. Constant retreat due to wave action has destroyed the portion of the road that stretched from Magellan ave to Surfers Beach. A picture of the remains of this road was featured as the cover of the book Living with the Changing California Coast! I'll be watching the action tomorrow which should be more exciting and dynamic than what was observed today.

Book Cover

 

Mirada Road, Miramar California

Monster Waves in the Pacific.....

Wave Action Pacifica Pier

....hammer the California Coast! On December 11th and 12th a High Surf Advisory was issued for the California coast with waves recorded as high as 42 feet in the Pacific. Record rains pummeled Oregon and Washington causing mud slides and flooding. On Friday December 11th I traveled to Surfers Beach near Half Moon Bay to record the action at a 5.9 foot high tide. Construction work has been on-going at Surfers Beach to address the major erosion issue near highway 1.  

Surfer Beach 12/11/15

Although the action at Surfers Beach was exciting I heard reports that the surf was off the charts in Pacifica California. I was disappointed I had chosen Surfers Beach for my photo shoot when I heard the news of Pacifica. Since the best action is at high tide I had missed the window for Pacifica.  As luck would have it the High Surf Advisory continued into the next day 12/12/15 and I headed for Pacifica at high tide!

As soon as I arrived near the Pacifica Pier I knew I was in for a treat as many of the side streets leading to the pier were closed due to flooding. I had in tow 4 cameras, a Canon 7D2 with a 10-22 wide angle lens, an Olympus E-3 with a 50-200 zoom lens, a Canon 7D with a 400 prime lens and a Panasonic video camera, not to mention my IPhone 5 smart phone. Some of my past King Tide photos have been taken during King Tides in Pacifica and I have been drenched before in the excitement of shooting and being blindsided by a wave. I've sort of come to expect a drenching in these endeavors, kind of like taking a bullet for the team!

A Single Frame from the Animated GIF

I started filming with the video camera and got a 6 minute clip of the wave action pummeling the pier and surrounding streets. The video gets more exciting at the 3 minute mark and beyond! I then started shooting with the still cameras and thought I was in a fairly safe spot after observing the wave action for awhile. The animated GIF above tells what happened next, I was totally blindsided by the biggest wave of all. I was so absorbed in the action I did not perceive the enormity of the wave about to crash on to me. I guess being oblivious to my surrounding enabled me to continue shooting and catch the entire wave frame by frame until it blanketed me......wahoo!
There was much excitement in the area, everybody was enjoying the display and you could hear owes and awes as another spectacular wave crashed ashore! I shot enough frames of a young girl having a grand time dancing and Moon Walking to the surf undulations to create the animated GIF.

Young Girl Moon Walking to the Surf

High Surf Excitement 

Snowy Plovers of Gazos Creek Beach

Snowy Plovers enjoying a temporary Gazos Creek Lake!

Gazos Creek Beach is located in San Mateo County about 60 miles south of San Francisco. To the south about 5 miles is Ano Nuevo State Reserve and two miles north is Pigeon Point Lighthouse.
I volunteer for an organization called Beach Watch (BW) which is an arm of FMSA (Farallones Marine Sanctuary Association) located at Crissy Field in the Presidio of San Francisco. BW consist of many teams of volunteers that survey beaches from Point Arena in Mendocino County to Ano Nuevo in San Mateo County twice per month. BW teams document live bird species and marine mammals as well as all dead birds, marine mammals and other creatures that perish on the beach. In addition beaches are surveyed for any signs of oil, be it from natural seep, ships and boats at sea and sunken vessels spewing oil or other hazardous materials.

For the last few years I've been documenting the Snowy Plover populations at Gazos Creek by counting the numbers and photographing all birds with leg bands that identify where the bird was born and banded.  Each month I send a short report to Point Blue (formally PRBO) in Petaluma California and to the Half Moon Bay Ranger Station. They in return send me what information they have on the banding locations of each individual.  

Official Status: Threatened, the Pacific Coast population of the western snowy plover is federally listed under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 as threatened. The western snowy plover is a Bird Species of Special Concern in California. Snowy plovers were listed as endangered under Washington Department of Game Policy No. 402 in 1981, and as threatened by the Oregon Fish and Wildlife Commission in 1975. The threatened status in Oregon was reaffirmed in 1989 under the Oregon Endangered Species Act.

Below are a few Snowys I've photographed on Gazos Creek Beach:

YY:AR Born and Banded at Salinas State Beach 2007 Spotted January 29th 2014 at Gazos	AO:BO Fledged Sunset State Beach 2015 Spotted at Gazos December 4th 2015
BY:GO & WO:GA Gazos 11/5/15 GO:BY banded Del Monte Beach 2015 WO:GA fledged Zmudowski State Beach 2014	AP:OA Monterey Bay Aquarium release 2014 Spotted 4 times at Gazos, latest 12/4/15
VO:BW Gazos 11/5/14 No additional sightings or information.	PV:YY Fledged Oceana Dunes 2015 Last Observation Gazos, 12/4/15

Buoys and El Niño Continued.........

Romeo Pier Peering into the Future

This blog post is a continuation of my previous post titled El Niño and Buoy 46012 Half Moon Bay Buoy 46012
I've done some further analysis of the local buoys in an attempt to see if any relationship can be established from the buoy data with respect to the current El Niño predictions. I'm not a climatologist nor do I have a background in earth climate systems. I'm just a scientifically minded citizen very concerned about the last 4 drought years and in particular the last 2 historically warm years 2014 and 2015.

I've been tracking the SF buoy in real time along with Bodega Bay, Half Moon Bay and FTPC1 Station at Crissy Field which is a ground reporting station. This is predicted as a significant rain/El Nino event as I will track and compare it to 1997-98 and 1982-83 to see how 2015 compares?

Summary of Buoy Data

Buoys transmit data hourly throughout the year which consist of wave height and periods, water and air temperatures and barometric pressures plus additional parameters. The last two El Niño events were 1982-83 and 1997-98. I’m concentrating primarily on 1997-98 because it’s most recent and I have a good recollection of that year because of the unusual and impressive rain totals. There are gaps in the buoy data and the most significant gap I encountered was the Half Moon Bay (HMB) Buoy 46012 which likely due to technical issues as no water temperature data for the entire year of 1997. However the San Francisco Buoy (SF) 46026 has more complete water temperature data up until 11/24/1997. However the water temperature data is absent for the remainder of 1997 and is absent for 1998 until 2/28/98. So there are 3 months of contiguous missing water temperature data occurring during the peak El Niño which is a little discouraging! I may in the future explore the Bodega Bay (Bodega) Buoy to see if it has more complete data.

In the general bay area waters I rely on 3 buoys, HMB, SF and Bodega and they generally follow the same temperature progression. January thru about June water temps average about 13°C and start to warm up reaching a peak in September of 15°C, then October thru December the temperatures decrease with the coming of winter back to about 13°C.

What Did 1997 Look Like? 

The 1997-1998 rainfall season was one of nearly epic proportions for San Francisco.  Numerous San Francisco records were set as the influences of an extremely strong El Niño were felt throughout the State.

SF Buoy 1997

Most notably it was the second wettest rainfall season (47.22 inches) in the 149 seasons since records began in San Francisco in 1849.  The previous second wettest season was 45.85 inches in 1889-1890.  The seasonal record remains 49.27 inches from 1861-1862; however over 24 inches of that season's total fell in the month of January 1862.  [The average seasonal rainfall (1961-1990) is 20.52 inches.]

Possibly more remarkable were the record 119 days when measurable rainfall was recorded, shattering the previous mark of 107 from the 1889-1890 season.

...http://ggweather.com/sf/sf97rain.html

Fig.4. Water Temperatures
1982/1997/2008/Present

Summary
Figure 4 is a comparison of 3 previous years, 1982 and 1997 last El Niño years and 2008 a typical year to the present year 2015. Note the 1997 data ends on November 24, 1997. All curves basically follow the same pattern peaking in the early fall and dropping as the year ends. The 1997 data deviates from that pattern showing a higher temperature of about 5 degrees F and not fading as other years do. As mentioned before the data is limited and has missing information for 1997. It's interesting to note that in November of 1997 San Francisco had almost 7 inches of rain, while there was 1,43 inches of rain this past November. It's intriguing to wonder if the 5 degree warmer water in 1997 accounts for the higher November rain totals? To pursue this further I will next look at the 1997 Bodega Bay data to see if there is more complete water temperature data!  Update 12/3/15 checking Bodega buoy data finds no useable data for all of 1997 and no data in 1998 until 3/28/98. So no earth shaking revelations here, just an exercise by a concerned citizen to help shake out the speculations from the actual data. Although our local waters are just a small part of the whole system, I wonder if water temperatures locally can be predictors of the El Niño effect.....not sure of that but the elevated temperatures over 2014 and 2015 is surly indications of a planet in distress!

The 2015 San Francisco Giants may be the best Giants Team Ever!

Matt Duffy

I've been a baseball fan for probably about 60 years I started out in 1955 rooting for the Baltimore Orioles! Back in those days the Orioles were pretty bad and I listen to every game on the radio as they were not televised in Washington DC where I lived. Everybody where I lived were Washington Senator fans except my father who was a New York Yankee fan! It was highly frustrating living in the household with a Yankee fan because the Yankees we're the best team in baseball and won everything. Even worse they rarely lost to the Orioles and on two occasions when my father took me to a Yankee Oriole game at Memorial Stadium in Baltimore Maryland  the Yankees beat the Orioles 16 to 0 on one occasion and 16 - 9 on another occasion! Eventually  the Orioles got pretty good and finally won their first World Series in 1966 beating the Los Angeles Dodgers in four games!

Joe Panix

The Orioles  continued to have respectable teams until about 1997 when the team was owned by Peter Angelos and thus a terrible downturn in Orioles baseball history lasted for 17 years and in that time the Orioles did not have a winning season! You know in sports if you have some bad players or even a bad manager you can trade for new players and find a new manager but if you have a bad owner there ain't nothing you can do! After 17 years of losing baseball I finally got wise and became a Yankee fan and that was not a bad move. Both my sister and I  are Yankee fans it's kind of a tribute to our deceased father. Having lived in San Francisco for many years I never was much of a Giants fan,  one reason being they were a National League team and I sort of had an American League mentality. I also thought the Giants we're fairly boring because in the few games I did attend usually against the Dodgers,  the scores where generally of  the 1 to 0 variety! However as time went on I grew more attached to the Giants and of course I always root against the Dodgers! With the addition of Buster Posey and Timmy Lincecum I became a real fan and was treated to their first World Championship in 2010.

Nori Aoki 

We all know the magic of the 2010 the 2012 and the 2014 season. However I would like to dwell on the 2015 team which I think is maybe the best Giant baseball team ever assembled! I'm going to go over the players on this team and explain why I am so excited about these players and there's hardly  one that I would want to give up at this point ! As I previously mentioned  I've been a Yankees Orioles American League fan for many years and a three run homer was like a the holy grail!  In addition in recent baseball history free agency has been a big factor and building contending teams. The Yankees of course are the most notorious with their large salary they routinely pick up superstars such as Alex Rodriguez, Roger Clemons, Reggie Jackson and Mark Teixeira to name a few.  This strategy has worked well for the Yankees, the Red Sox and currently the Dodgers! With that background I was firmly in the Earl Weaver George Stinebrenner camp of buy players that can deliver that 3 run homer and shut out the opponents. 

In 2010 the Giants earned the phrase Torture because every game was a nail bitter consisting of excellent pitching and defense but not much offense. Much of the power was supplied by Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, and to a lesser extent Juan Uribe, Pat Burrell,  Edgar Rentaria and  Nate Schierholtz. The Giants won the World Series against the Texas Rangers in 5 games with stellar pitching from Lincecum, Bumgardner and Cain!  

During the 2014 season the Giants got off to a very good start but went into an incredible funk that made me make a mid-season prediction that the Giants would end in the cellar! During this terrible streak I would see the Giants with crucial runners in scoring position send up 3 players in a row batting .200 or under. Somehow some way the Giants prevailed and barely made the playoffs finishing 6 games behind the dodgers. However late in 2014 some new faces started to show up in the Giants Dugout, young wet behind the ears rookies! 

Marco Scutaro was the pick for 2nd base but injuries sidelined him and a replacement was sought. My Earl Weaver thought was to buy an established proven hitter and fill the need. The Giants did just that and acquired Dan Uggla. For some reason Uggla was given a brief try then released. At the same time I noticed some new players hanging around, Joe Panix, Matt Duffy, Andrew Susac and Chris Heston, the rookies. Honestly I was disappointed to see such inexperienced players put in rolls more fitting to veterans. I was about to learn a lesson from Bruce Botchy and the Giants organization that erased my Earl Weaver mentality.  

It did not take long for Joe Panix to win over the doubters and show that he was not only a good ballplayer but an exceptional ball player that had star written all over him. I think Joe Panix gave the Giants such a boost that it rubbed off on the entire team. The Giants peaked at playoff time and all gears were churning flawlessly. In the 2014 World Series of course the magical story was Madison Bumgarner, but so many more rose to the occasion, including Travis Ishikawa, Juan Perez, Gregor Blanco and Yusmeiro Petit in the playoffs as well as World Series.  

Kelby Tomlinson 

So now the 2015 regular season has expired and the Giants are not in the playoffs, why am I so excited about this team going into 2016? 2015 started with Pablo Sandoval bailing on the Giants and leaving a big hole at 3rd. I was not pleased when Pablo was offered exactly what Boston had offered him, however Pablo claims he was disrespected by the Giants, this I did not see! So the Giants signed a veteran player Casey McGehee. Poor Casey struggled badly and it was obvious he was trying very hard. It turns out that at the same time Pablo left,  the A's traded 3rd basemen Josh Donaldson to Toronto. I thought what a missed opportunity, how did the Giants miss this deal. BTW Donaldson is in the running for MVP this year with 41 home runs and 123 RBI's. 

So at the same time young Matt Duffy is improving daily and he is given the 3rd base job. You could see Matt Duffy improving in all aspects of the game from hitting to fielding to base running every day. He had such an impressive season he's pretty much runner up for Rookie of the Year (ROY) batting .295 with 12 HRs and 77 RBI's. I'm thinking he's our 3rd basemen into the future, he may even be a Franchise Player. I don't use Franchise Player lightly as Buster Posey is certainly the Giants Franchise Player. But then again there is Joe Panix that is in the same category, possibly a long term fixture with the Giants organization. How lucky is that to add two such players to your organization in one season, it's astounding for sure. 

Couple this with Hunter Pence, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Angel Pagan and you have a rock solid team. Wait a minute did I mention Nori Aoki?   

Nori Aoki: I’m super impressed with this addition a natural born lead-off hitter. Nori knows how to get on base, he has incredible bat control can hit the ball anywhere he pleases and has great speed that produces many infield hits. He’s fast, and has a great baseball mind. Also, he can hit with power when he sets his mind to it. I see Aoki has the Giants lead-off man into the distant future. The one troubling aspect of Mr Aoki is how durable is he? He spent a lot of time on the DL this year and is such an unorthodox player he may be more prone to injury as demonstrated by being hit in the helmet by a pitched ball which put him on the concussion watch and kind of finished his season. Anyway I'm not going to dwell on these issues, I expect Nori to have a healthy productive 2016 season if he remains a Giant. 

Brandon Crawford: This was an offensive outbreak season for Crawford with 21 HRs and 84 RBI's. He certainly is one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball and in my opinion he and Panix are the best double play combo around. 

Brandon Belt: Everyone that is familiar with Brandon see the potential of a super star. So far nagging injuries have slowed Belt down, but this year he was pretty healthy hitting 280 with 18 HRs. Although a good year everybody expects a break-out year soon and it will come.  Earlier he smashed a 475 foot homer at Coors Field, not too shabby!

Angel Pagan:  A true spark plug, he does everything well, hitting, fielding, throwing and base-running. When he’s hot and healthy the Giants click. The only drawback for Angel and you could say this for Pence too, they are aggressive fielders and are not afraid of walls and collisions, however this kind of fielding is a fast track to the DL, let’s hope these guys stay healthy!

Hunter Pence: There is so much to say about this guy, truly an inspiration to the entire team and the fan base. Here is hoping for a healthy 2016, boy we miss this guy in the lineup!

Buster Posey: Just like Hunter Pence he does it all, the face of the franchise for sure. Looks like he may be playing more 1st base in the future as catching is a demanding position! When Buster went down in early 2011 it was an omen the season would not go well and it did not. I sort of felt that way when Pence had his arm broken early in the season, then had another injury later in the season. 

World Champs 

Pitching: Jeremy Affeldt and Tim Hudson have retired and they were fantastic for the Giants, will be sorely missed. The Giants do need a top notch second starter and since they are pretty rich in position players they have an opportunity to pick up a good solid pitcher. Peavy came on strong lately and Cain has shown flashes of the greatness he's capable of.  Tim Lincecum is questionable but would love to see him back in his great form. Madison Bumgarner can of course match the best of pitchers in baseball. The relief staff is still looking good but we need a couple more arms to bolster the pen!

The way I see it, the Giants are solid in position players I would keep everyone and hope we lose no one to free agency including Marlon Byrd. I really enjoyed Marlon Byrd this year, great addition to fill in for injuries. He seems a little apprehensive at first despite his first fantastic Giants game. I could see him gaining confidence throughout the season and by the end he had that fire, that Giant's fire and he was having a great time. 

That's not the end of the story, more great opportunities are flooding the dugout with new fresh enthusiastic young players popping up.  Kelby Tomlison was called up to fill in for the injured Joe Panix and my god have we found another super rookie possible franchise player; 3 in one year? 

But wait that's not all, a kid named Jarrett Parker showed up and proceeded to hit 3 homers in one game and 5 in 9 at bats, I must be dreaming! Did you hear about our rookie pitcher Chris Heston pitching a no hitter and winning 12 games? 

I believe this is the first team I can say I'm totally satisfied that we have a complete team at this point and if we can shake those god awful injuries we should be back in the World Series in 2016 right on schedule! 

Coastal Doings September 2015

Humpback Whale Surfaces at Surfer's Beach 

The warm Pacific Ocean around San Francisco/Half Moon Bay has attracted a variety of activities for the last few weeks including an invasion of Humpback Whales. This was evident today at Surfer's Beach at highway 1 where many Humpbacks were feeding to the delight of the unusually large crowds of people who gathered to enjoy the spectacle. Also in attendance where Heermann's Gulls, Western Gulls, Brown Pelicans, Elegant Terns, Common Murre's and California Sea lions.

The waters around Half Moon Bay have been 60 F or higher since early July, a phenomenon that has not likely occurred in the resent past. This higher temperature correlates with past El Niño years.

There is a major Common Murre die-off that FMSA (Farallones Marine Sanctuary Association) sponsor of Beach Watch of which I'm a volunteer has been investigating. On my last survey of Gazos Creek Beach 9/9/15 we documented approximately 75 dead murres. This die-off is 4X the normal year and is consistent with past El Niño years.

About 7-9 Brown Boobies have been observed on the Farallones and some have been spotted at Alcatraz and even one Boobie has been hanging out on the buoy off Miramar in the Half Moon Bay area. At least two Blue-footed Boobies have been observed on the Farallones and some have been seen from Santa Cruz to Point Reyes! Also of note but not a southern species is the Northern Gannet that has been hanging out on the Farallones for several years.

Some other activity of note are at least two incidents of Vellela Vellela (by-the-wind sailor) strandings in very large numbers. There has been an unusual number of Mola Mola (sunfish) juveniles washing up on beaches, plus the troubling rise in California Sea Lion mortality and Guadalupe Fur Seal strandings.

Heermann's Gulls enjoying
Whale Breath

Speaking of rare, today it actually sprinkled here, finally an opportunity for the weather gurus to use their much touted and little utilized "Storm Tracker" radar!